Assessing Species Vulnerability to Climate Change Using Phenology

There is a critical need to understand how our natural resources are already responding to climate change in order to develop tools for projecting natural resource responses into the future and to devise plans for actions that can be taken in reaction to observed and predicted changes. Phenology – the timing of seasonal biological events such as budburst, flowering, bird migration, and leaf coloring – provides a tested indicator of climate change response by plants and animals. A rich source of phenology datasets exists independently throughout the state, but these datasets are not compiled in a centralized manner. Furthermore, ongoing collection of phenology data is a cost efficient task that, done in an organized manner, can continue to provide valuable long-term evidence of climate change response. Researchers at the University of Minnesota are using this appropriation to compile and analyze historical phenology datasets and to establish a statewide network to collect future phenology data. This information will be helpful in identifying plant and animal species vulnerable to climate change and enhancing adaptive management strategies, such as for maintaining forest productivity, supporting plant pollination and reproduction, and supporting efforts to maintain the integrity of wildlife and fisheries populations.